Maryland Newsline

• Hagerstown Town & Country Almanack

Hagerstown Town & Country Almanack business manager Jerry Spessard with  the book's latest edition (Newsline photo by Kyle Orland)

By Kyle Orland
Maryland Newsline
Friday, Dec. 12, 2003

HAGERSTOWN, Md. -- Jerry Spessard has been managing the finances of the 207-year-old Hagerstown Town & Country Almanack for 19 years. But he's afraid that, if sales of the folksy book don't pick up, it may not be around a few years from now.

Spessard said sales of the publication — which combines weather predictions with tips on farming and health -- were down to about 100,000 last year from a high of about 250,000 in the 1960s and '70s. At current sales levels, Spessard said, the company is barely breaking even on the $2.95 books.

"It's a case of diminishing returns," he said.

The decline in sales is partly due to the publication’s inability to attract younger readers, Spessard said. Most current subscribers are over 60, he said.

To make it more appealing, Spessard is trying to combine the classic format with new content on "more up-to-date topics." He’s also adding contests that encourage reader participation, such as a recent "What the American Flag Means to Me" writing contest.

Despite these changes, Spessard said it's "tough to compete with TV, movies and the Internet."

The Almanack started its life in America when John Gruber, a German immigrant, first published Neuer Hagerstauner Calender Stadt und Land in both English and German in 1797. Over the years, the Almanack has stayed in the family and in Hagerstown, being passed down through generations of Gruber sons-in-law, Spessard said. Today the Almanack is owned by The Gruber Almanack Co., which consists of about 20 of Gruber's heirs.

Almanack Editor Chad Fisher is himself a direct descendant of John Gruber.

Today's Almanack is an eclectic mix of features including farming advice, health hints, “school tools” (such as a rhyme for remembering the order of U.S. presidents) and, of course, the famous "Conjecture of the Weather."

Bill O'Toole, who makes the weather and astrological calculations for the Almanack, said predictions are mainly based on changes in the phases of the moon. The predictions, which he makes in June for the upcoming year, can be up to 75 percent accurate, O'Toole said. (The National Weather Service’s Ed O’Lenic said it would be hard to compare that number to the accuracy of its long-range climatological predictions.)

But Spessard said people pay too much attention to the accuracy of the Almanack's predictions. "You can't take it seriously," he said. "It's a fun thing based on folklore, tradition and belief. It's not scientifically proven."

WUSA-TV Channel 9 chief meteorologist Topper Shutt agrees. “It’s always fun to talk about long-range forecasting. If I told you back in 1750 that January 2000 would be warmer than usual, I’d be right. But that month was also the 12th snowiest in Maryland history.

“Even if they’re right, it doesn’t really do you much good.”

For the record, this year's Almanack predicts another harsh winter, with snow into March.

Spessard and the Almanack gained national notoriety in February 1995, when the Almanack correctly predicted a blizzard. Spessard said he performed dozens of interviews that February alone and was featured in stories on several networks and in major newspapers.

He said he’s happy to be able to shine a positive light on Hagerstown. "So much of the time the news in negative, tragic,” Spessard said. “But ours is a very positive image."

The Almanack, Hagerstown Chamber of Commerce President Fred Teeter Jr. agreed, “really puts us on the map.”

Spessard said he uses the Almanack himself, although not always to predict the weather. He pointed out a section that describes "Aunt Lydia's method," a procedure for determining the gender of an unborn child based on astrological signs and the birthday of the previous child. Spessard, who has been married for 32 years, said the method worked for the latter two of his three children. He said he's gotten calls from around the country about its effectiveness.

But Spessard, who peppers his speech with phrases like, "there's a purpose for everything," and, "things happen for a reason," said that managing the struggling Almanack is taking its toll on him.

"It's a lot of work for not much gain," said the 54-year-old, who also holds a full-time job with Keller Stonebreaker Insurance Inc. and markets a line of self-made sports helmets.

"Trying to compete with all these news media means we have to find different ways to find new readers. It's been a very frustrating process,” he said.