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Obama, McCain, Tops with Maryland Voters in Latest Poll

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Summary of the Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies poll

Special Report: Elections '08

By Veena Trehan
Capital News Service
Tuesday, Jan. 15, 2008


WASHINGTON - Maryland's large black population may push Illinois Democratic Sen. Barack Obama over the top in the state's presidential primary next month, according to a new poll.

The study released Tuesday by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies' shows Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton are in a statistical dead heat four weeks before Maryland's primary, with Obama edging Clinton 36 percent to 33 percent. The three point difference is within the poll's 5.3 point margin of error, meaning the two are essentially tied.

The same poll shows Arizona Republican Sen. John McCain winning Maryland's Republican primary, with 23 percent, but with voters still very split.

Both former Arkansas Gov. Michael Huckabee and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani won 15 percent of Maryland's GOP vote in the survey.

The black vote could be critical in determining who wins the state. The poll found 63 percent of black Democratic voters would choose Obama.

Keith Haller, president of the polling firm Potomac Inc., says a black vote that often tallies in at more than 30 percent could make the difference in the race.

"When you get the consolidated African-American vote behind one candidate, that can often tip the balance," said Haller. That population was pinpointed by analysts as the key to Democratic challenger Martin O'Malley's victory over Republican Gov. Robert Ehrlich in the 2006 race for the state's top elected post.

Blacks make up 29.5 percent of Maryland's population, more than twice the national average. The poll shows just 22 percent of black voters would vote for Clinton if the vote were today. White voters, meanwhile, favored Clinton or former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards 63 percent of the time.

Clarification

The first-edition version of this story identified former Sen. John Edwards as being from South Carolina. Edwards was born in South Carolina, but represented North Carolina in the U.S. Senate.

In a national Washington Post-ABC News poll Jan. 12, Clinton lost 11 percent from just over a month ago and Obama gained 14 percent, putting Obama at 37 percent and Clinton at 42 percent.

Obama's Iowa win provided momentum to narrow the gap, an expert said.

"The biggest difference (now) is Obama is seen as having a credible chance of winning," says Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports.

Regardless of what happens in the next four weeks, the choice shouldn't be painful for Maryland Democrats. Those surveyed said they have between a 63 percent and 66 percent favorable opinion of the three remaining Democratic candidates--Obama, Clinton and Edwards.

"No matter who is ahead in Maryland at the time of the Democratic primary, voters generally will be happy with that person," said Laslo Boyd, partner at Gonzales Research.

The closeness of the race has prompted increased candidate criticisms. Most recently Clinton and Obama have argued over the influence of the top executive vs. the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. in the struggle for civil rights.

"They could trade punches round for round and both be standing and bruised after another month," said Haller.

Such rough-and-tumble politics, plus the lack of incumbents in the contest, are stretching out the primary season, increasing the chance that Maryland might have a say in who wins the party nominations. And that's fine with voters of the state, who moved the primary up to February from May with that purpose in mind.

Whether Marylanders' primary votes matter next month may depend on what happens Feb. 5 on "Super Tuesday." Democrats will hold elections in 22 states on Super Tuesday, Republicans in 21, and 52 percent of the total delegates to the national conventions will be awarded that day.

The different results of the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary have created what many experts say is open field on the Republican side. In the recent poll, only one Republican - McCain - drew a favorable rating over 50 percent, a finding that was mirrored in January's Washington Post-ABC poll.

Rasmussen says McCain is helped by the improving situation in Iraq and the focus of the field on conservative voters. Also giving him a boost is his record of poor performance - candidates have been saving their fire for other Republicans.

"It's very, very fluid," says Rasmussen. "Each time a Republican candidate gets frontrunner status, other candidates say here's a reason why they shouldn't be on top. That's why none of them stay there."

The extended period of uncertainty, which could lead up until the nomination, might be beneficial.

"It's a good thing for democracy to have the process play out, and to take longer to interview a person for the most important job the world," said Rasmussen. "It's important. It takes time."

Copyright 2008 University of Maryland Philip Merrill College of Journalism

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